My good friend OLD SCHOOL lives in Arizona. Some of you remember him from Answerbag. Some of you remember him from here before he was BANNED! He took a road trip to visit his family in northern California. As it happened he visited ZUMA BEACH in/near Malibu on his way up north on his BIRTHDAY. Now ZUMA BEACH was where my son and OLD SCHOOL and all their friends went all the time as teenagers.
While there and looking out to the horizon he noticed a shiny thing...caught his eye...and eventually it came to shore. It was a MYLAR HAPPY BIRTHDAY BALLOON! Now he lives in Arizona. Was on his way to northern California. Stopped at Zuma for awhile. Saw a sparkly something that eventually found its way to him.
He could have been there on Tuesday or Thursday. How long that sparkly thing would have been visible I don't know.
I know lots of variables here. When I asked him what the odds of that were he said he had no idea how to calculate it. I told him I'd ask you because well maybe someone out there somewhere could take a crack at it.
I don't know what the "window" of opportunity would be. It would have something to do with the wind velocity and the waves and the amount of time it takes to travel a specific distance. Where that balloon started we don't know.
Are there some odds that are incaculable because there are too many moving parts?
Or can the odds of anything be calculated if you're smart enough knowledgeable enough creative enough daring enough?
Told him I'd report back to him if I got any hits on this.
My guess? Odds are a bazillion to one. Now there is no such number as a bazillion to my knowledge. It exists only in my fantasy. Maybe calculating the odds exists only there too.
