Is knowing what a "Simple Simon" will do or what he is thinking not so much telepathy or precognition as it is a selection o

There are all kinds of ways of knowing another’s intentions without being psychic.

One, as you suggest, is based on probabilities: there’s range of probable responses to most situations with greater or lesser degrees of likelihood. We often make guesstimates and act on them – a normal and essential social skill. Experience hones our skills in guessing correctly.

Another way is based on reading body language, facial expression, and tone of voice. Conscious observation can be helpful in picking up when someone is not being authentic. Many of us do this unconsciously, intuiting without knowing why we know what we do. But it’s not always accurate because some people are masters of acting or hiding.