Clinton leads in most forecasting sites’ predictions based on her stronger position in the electoral college (71.5% chance to win by FiveThirtyEight and 88% by PredictWise). Putting it simply, she has more margin for error than he does based on the map. For example, most people think Trump can’t win if he loses Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina (but those polls are very close as Americans head out to vote). Clinton needs them too, but she could more easily weather their loss.
Trump has battled back to virtual ties in a number of critical states that will, in one combination or the other, determine the presidency. His standing in some states continues to improve (in Ohio, he leads by 7 in a new poll, and the margin keeps shrinking in the critical state of Pennsylvania), but in other battleground states Clinton’s standing has now stabilized and even grown after eroding for days to the point of virtual ties (New Hampshire and Nevada, for starters).
This is way too close for my comfort zone.
This post was edited by WM BARR . =ABSOLUTE TRASH at November 8, 2016 6:28 PM MST
