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The chances are there for an improved showing on behalf of a third party contender. The problem being of course, that a third party candidate can siphon off a large piece of the popular vote causing harm to one or both of the other candidates. Or, winning a few states without coming close to an electoral majority. Wallace in 1968 won approximately 10 million votes and five states, Perot in 1992, won a large piece of the popular vote with no states. We've even had a case of four parties in 1860, with the winner, Lincoln, winning outright with 43% of the vote. A third party can sway the outcome for the two major parties with a strong showing, but I really can't see one being elected outright. It would take the strongest of these efforts yet on record to prevent someone from getting 270 Electoral votes. The best hope that such a candidacy might have would be to throw the race into the US House and even then, there's no chance that the two major parties will line up behind one of the minor candidates when all the seats in that chamber are occupied by Dems and Reps.
