There's a very good chance of Democrats picking up three seats in Central New York alone. In the districts around me we have:
NY 24th District: John Katko (R) versus Colleen Deacon (D): Katko's a moderate Republican and really a great guy, but he's not exciting, not very well spoken, and likely to be a victim of poor down-ballot showing if Trump is the GOP nominee. Deacon is the former senior aid to New York State Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and will have the benefit of ties to the Gillibrand campaign machine.
NY 22nd District: Longtime GOP rep Richard Hanna (R) is retiring. Hanna has always been a moderate pro-life Republican and this district is politically moderate. The Republican nominee is Claudia Tenney (R) a right-wing Tea Party whack-job who has a tendency to get irate and make herself look ridiculous by spouting anti-Obama conspiracy theories and FOX News talking points. She's facing Kim Myers (D) who has a substantial campaign war-chest due to the fact that her family owns the Dick's Sporting Goods chain.
NY 21st District: Freshman Representative Elise Stefanik (R) looks great on camera but she's not an effective speaker and hasn't authored any bills during her time in the House. She's facing retired Army Colonel Mike Derrick (D) whom she is literally rumored to be "afraid of", because his knowledge of political and economic issues is so expansive compared to hers.
So, if Central New York is any indicator, it should be quite easy for Democrats to pick up 31 seats in the House this November. Are there any Congressional Districts near where you live that look like a good chance for a Democratic pickup in the House?
Not great.
The GOP made a very concerted effort (largely successful) to take over state legislatures in the 2010 election cycle. Because of the GOP's success, the party was able to redraw legislative and Congressional districts in such a way that it maximizes GOP representation almost independent of the actual vote.
Consider the case of Pennsylvania:
answermug.com/forum/topics/rorsach-test-what-does-this-picture-look-like-to-you
Because of extremely gerrymandered Congressional districts, such as the one shown in the link above, even though 52% of Pennsylvanians voted for Democratic congressional representatives in 2012, the Democratic party only won 5 out of Pennsylvania's 18 Congressional seats (net representation of 28%).
It's unlikely the GOP stranglehold due to redistricting will be substantially altered until 2020 when districts are once again redrawn based on the 2020 census.
Hello C:
Most of the nation has been fully gerrymandered, so the chance of the libs re-taking the house is about 1 in 4.
excon
That would even be better than Trump losing almost. It won't happen at all unless he does.
I cannot wait that long. 2020? We will all be dead by then if they aren't. Aren't most of them ready to die? Sorry to be morbid, but AREN'T THEY???? Most of them????? How about Trump wanting to add Newt Gingrich on his ticket? This is supposed to be a picture of Nuka Sugar Bombs. I think I might serve them all a nice inauguration breakfast when Hilldog wins.
