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Discussion » Statements » Rosie's Corner » Don't other teams have to be able to DUPLICATE the tests and get the same results for a scientific CLAIM to be believed?

Don't other teams have to be able to DUPLICATE the tests and get the same results for a scientific CLAIM to be believed?

Posted - November 18

Responses


  • 2601
    Pretty much, yes. Or if it's something observed rather than by experiment, by repeating the observations. The results may not be identical but the differences must be insignificant, by tolerances called "experimental error".

    Most science advances by -

     Hypothesis (What if? - provided the postulated result or cause is sensible and seems to offer a sensible solution),

    then Theory (best fit to test results or observations in the light of accumulated knowledge and careful review, but still subject to further examination at least in detail, or even discarding completely if new knowledge emerges perhaps years later to show it fitted what was known at the time but is now seen as mistaken);

    and only to Law if it works every time.
      November 18, 2020 2:15 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Would that hold true for  vaccine efficacies too Durdle? I am very suspicious of TWO vaccines claiming 95% effectiveness with no deleterious side effects in less than a year. Normal FDA testing takes 2-10 years and go those specific strict lengthy stages. The success rate is quite low and sometimes at the very end something drastic occurs and the vaccine is never used. It's discarded. So this fast-tracking doesn't impress me because I'm not sure I can trust the results. Now in other times I would not have questioned it. Today I do. Thank you for your reply and Happy Thursday to thee and thine! Things okay where you live? STAY SAFE! :) This post was edited by RosieG at November 19, 2020 1:24 AM MST
      November 19, 2020 1:23 AM MST
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  • 7344
    If one is proposing a scientific theory, then for acceptance others must be able to reproduce the results.

    The effectiveness of the vaccine is determined by simply extrapolating (the process of statistical inference) the data obtained from the trials of the vaccine in volunteers.
      November 18, 2020 3:34 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Doesn't it strike you as quite astonishing that we have not one but two vaccines in less than a year that claim 95% effectiveness with no harmful side effects? Normally it ttakes 2-10 years to go through the rigid specific lengthy stages and the success rate is quite low. Even on the verge of release something can go wrong and the vaccine never makes it to market. It is discarded. So now I am expected to believe a miracle happened twice? It's not easy being me. Thank you for your reply tom and Happy Thursday to thee and thine! :)
      November 19, 2020 1:27 AM MST
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  • 7344
    Not at all astonishing---more knowledge, smarter virologists, better technology.

     
      November 19, 2020 3:41 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Is there any way to calculate the odds of this occurrence? Too many variables? Where would we start? Thank you for your reply. Just thought of another question to ask.
      November 22, 2020 4:19 AM MST
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  • 7344
    Are you asking the odds of multiple vaccines being of significant effectiveness being discovered so quickly?
      November 22, 2020 12:34 PM MST
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  • 98283
    That is precisely what I am asking tom. The history of development of drugs..the rigid FDA testing protocols...the methodology of various stages of those trials. I know I told you I was involved in a trial years ago. I believe it was a stage 3 trial and my participation lasted TWO YEARS. The drug was Calcitonin and a few years later it was approved and I believe is in use today. I am not sure of that. So since that is all the knowledge I have about FDA trials I think it is very logical for me to be very suspicious about any fast tracking and that TWO drugs were fast tracked and are touted as being 95% effective is astonishing to me. I have no scientific background at all. Just experiential in being one of the guinea pigs. I asked a question wanting to see the logs of both companies. Timing of various parts of it. How long each part took. What was done exactly. Those should be compared to other logs of other successful drugs to see where the differences in TIME were. Aren't you curious about that? I sure am. Someone with knowledge should have done that it seems to me and perhaps it was done. If so I want to know about it. Don't you? Thank you for your reply! :)
    D
      November 23, 2020 5:14 AM MST
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  • 7344
    Interesting side note about the Cutter Incident involved with the polio vaccine:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutter_Laboratories#Cutter_incident

      November 18, 2020 3:45 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Thank you for the info and the link. I had not heard of that but it is precisely what I'm getting at. What disasters may lie ahead of this FAST TRACK deliverance of TWO VACCINES with miraculous UNHEARD OF 95% success rate and no dire side effects? Seriously? Time is the one thing you cannot ignore. A cake takes a certain amount of time to bake. Pull it out of the oven too early and you have soup. It doesn't compute. Could I be wrong? Of course. I often am. But this is scary. Thank you for your reply tom. It was something I hope is never repeated again. But you know if we do not learn from history we are doomed to keep repeating it! :( This post was edited by RosieG at November 19, 2020 11:16 AM MST
      November 19, 2020 1:31 AM MST
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  • 7344
    It was not the fault of the vaccine---the laboratory manufacturing it for distribution did not process it according to the requirements to allow it to be safely administered.

    To use your analogy, there was nothing wrong with the recipe for the cake, but if you don't cook it according to the directions you don't get the results you require.
      November 19, 2020 11:21 AM MST
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  • 98283
    Exactly my point. Vaccine development takes YEARS to do right. If you do it in months you are taking a big chance.  Thank you for your reply tom. We can't know if the vaccines are good until the time elapses and there are NO SERIOUS SIDE EFFECTS. Some don't show up right away. THAT IS PRECISELY WHY it takes years. Not this time. :)
      November 19, 2020 11:36 AM MST
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  • 7344
    There is no causality between time spent in research and development for a vaccine to be be "done right"---just like there is no value to cooking a cake for 3 days rather than 1 hour to make sure it's "done right."

    What you are talking about is an individual's "risk tolerance"; and if I have the choice of getting the vaccine at age 85 or waiting until it were proven to be absolutely void of risk 10 years later, why would I wait until my after my current life expectancy will have been exceeded to get the vaccine. This post was edited by tom jackson at November 20, 2020 1:48 AM MST
      November 19, 2020 3:53 PM MST
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  • 98283
    I don't think it is remotely analogous tom. I'm sure the fault lies within my brain but I see no connection whatsoever to a three day baked cake and FDA testing of a vaccine that could kill people or cripple them. Thank you for your reply. This time we are not even in the same book let alone on the same page. Sorry. The cake doesn't have the potential to kill you. I know I'm the one who brought up the cake. Mea culpa. This post was edited by RosieG at November 20, 2020 12:52 PM MST
      November 20, 2020 1:49 AM MST
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  • 7344
    If you fail to perform a required process in the preparation of the batter, the cake will fail.  That is not the fault of the recipe---that is the fault of the cook.

    The recipe for the vaccine is safe as has been proven so by the testing protocol---if the lab fails to produce it properly, the vaccine does not fail---the manufacturer does.

    If multiple causation is suspected, differential diagnosis is essential---rejecting a safe vaccine that may not have been produced properly is a diagnostic failure. This post was edited by tom jackson at November 21, 2020 2:17 AM MST
      November 20, 2020 12:56 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Thank you for your reply tom. When it comes out and is being used I'll just trust my doctor at Kaiser to advise me what to do.:) This post was edited by RosieG at November 21, 2020 11:41 AM MST
      November 21, 2020 2:18 AM MST
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  • 7344
    An excellent decision.
      November 21, 2020 11:41 AM MST
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  • 98283
    Thank you. We trust him. All the rest is just blather. :)
      November 22, 2020 4:15 AM MST
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  • 7344
    Here's a link explaining why the Covid-19 vaccine does not require the long development time that is necessary for various other vaccines:

    https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-vaccines-were-developed-132214905.html


    here's a link to messenger RNA---it's a new technology:

     https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/what-mrna-how-pfizer-moderna-tapped-new-tech-make-coronavirus-n1248054 This post was edited by tom jackson at November 21, 2020 2:13 AM MST
      November 20, 2020 2:52 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Thank you for providing the links to me tom. I appreciate it. I guess advances in medicine can in fact collapse the time it takes to effect a SAFE product. Anything to do with the duck makes me nervous. That everyone is petrified of him causes great concern. To think that pkarmaceutical companies are immune to that and actually keep their integrity and professional methodology will take awhile to absorb. So far he has infected every level of society so completely it's hard to know whom you can trust. :)
      November 21, 2020 2:16 AM MST
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  • 7344
    True---and as I heard yesterday, it's becoming abundantly clear that republicans (aka--Trumpians) can't be trusted with democracy.
      November 21, 2020 11:41 AM MST
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  • 98283
    Yes and they have plenty of time to strangle whatever remaining life exists in the body politic. By the time President Biden is sworn in we may be a corpse. I'm sure that is the goal of the duck and his cabal et al. Leave nothing behind but destruction. Like the Phoenix can we rise up out of our own ashes to live again? I have no idea. Thank you for your reply! :)
      November 22, 2020 4:17 AM MST
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  • 7344
    I fear mostly those specific Trumpians who have never learned how to come to logical conclusions---they are liable to wind up plugging up the drain that we have to use to get rid of Trump's detritus.
      November 22, 2020 12:39 PM MST
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  • 98283
    Oh my goodness that is not good. The drains on our side of the street work well. But they must be clogged on the other side of the street because when it rains long and hard our street gets FLOODED starting from those plugged drains. I betcha the folks who bought homes on that side of the the street were shocked the first time heavy lengthy rains hit. Not often thankfully. One year rains hit on trash barrel pickup day. We always put the barrels out on the curb the day before. Sometimes the trucks come very early in the morning. We woke up to very heavy rains and I got a phone call early from our neighbor friend asking me "where did all the trash barrels go". Well they all washed down the street because the rains came over the curbs and the speed of water just took them away. That is worst case of plugged street drains. Plugged drains in the home? We've been there too. You don't want to go there. It is very unpleasant when everything backs up. So the analogy is well taken and terribly frightening. Sigh. Now we wait see if there are any plungers around and anyone willing to use them. Thank you for your reply tom! :)
      November 23, 2020 5:06 AM MST
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