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Discussion » Questions » Politics » Good news for the anti-Trump factions: According to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, Trump's base of support is shrinking. Your thoughts?

Good news for the anti-Trump factions: According to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com, Trump's base of support is shrinking. Your thoughts?

Silver is a reknowned statistical analyst of baseball and elections. He correctly predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 US presidential election. The following is excerpted from his feature on the site he founded and runs:

widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country — won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don’t necessarily care about some of the controversies that the “mainstream media” treats as game-changing developments.

It’s an entirely reasonable theory. We live in a highly partisan epoch, and voters are usually loyal to politicians from their party. Trump endured a lot of turbulence in the general election but stuck it out to win the Electoral College. The media doesn’t always guess right about which stories will resonate with voters.

But the theory isn’t supported by the evidence. To the contrary, Trump’s base seems to be eroding. There’s been a considerable decline in the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 percent in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The decline in Trump’s strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in his approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love from his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support. And voters who strongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an “enthusiasm gap” that works against Trump at the midterms. The data suggests, in particular, that the GOP’s initial attempt (and failure) in March to pass its unpopular health care bill may have cost Trump with his core supporters.

These estimates come from the collection of polls we use for FiveThirtyEight’s approval ratings tracker. Many approval-rating polls give respondents four options: strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove and strongly disapprove. Ordinarily, we only estimate Trump’s overall approval and disapproval. But we went back and collected this more detailed data for all polls for which it was available, and then we reran our approval ratings program to output numbers for all four approval categories instead of the usual two.

I urge you to read it in its entirety here - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

Posted - May 24, 2017

Responses


  • 3191
    I haven't really seen any loss of 'support' for Trump among people I know, either online or off.  If anything, their support has increased due to those that oppose him. This post was edited by Bozette at May 24, 2017 11:39 PM MDT
      May 24, 2017 11:11 PM MDT
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  • 10037
    If accurate, I think this is good news. It's good to know that some of his followers aren't determined to stay on the Trump Train until it completely derails. I still think when it's over and all of his treachery and dirty laundry is brought to light, many of his supporters will stand by him and blame the media and his detractors. Most people refuse to ever admit that they were wrong. 
      May 24, 2017 11:44 PM MDT
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