He
is
going
down
FAST
aye, as far as my eye can see.
his only role in this election is low-grade entertainment and facilitating the first female U.S. president.
good job, Trump. ;p
Maybe Nate should be predicting stocks.
I never really thought he had a chance regardless of who votes for whom in whichever states.
Elections, while not deterministic, do have much greater predictability than the stock market. If you take a poll of how people will vote the day before an election, the election results overwhelmingly line up with the poll results the vast majority of the time.
Things could change (e.g. an HRC indictment by the FBI would dramatically upset the probable outcome). But Silver's methods have proven to be relatively reliable.
The electoral math never really favored the GOP in the upcoming Presidential election. The Democratic Party has enough large populous states firmly in its camp that almost any Democratic candidate is sure to get about 225 electoral votes. The corresponding number for the GOP is somewhere around 180 "sure" electoral votes. Given that it takes 270 electoral votes to win, the Democrats only need to win about 1/2 the "swing state" votes the GOP does to secure victory.
The relatively high unpopularity of HRC combined with the unusual nature of Trump's "campaign" (given how little campaigning he actually does, it's arguable that his efforts constitute a campaign) obscured that fundamental math for a time. But as election day approaches and people are tasked with making hard choices (as opposed to simply voting "Trow Da Bums Out!"), the demographic/regional advantage of the Democratic Party is becoming clear again.
Trump's going down faster than Crystal Palin at an abstinence only teen retreat.