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Discussion » Statements » Rosie's Corner » Are the odds of someone dying on the same date of the same illness as someone else 365 to 1? How are odds figured?

Are the odds of someone dying on the same date of the same illness as someone else 365 to 1? How are odds figured?

Posted - August 26, 2018

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  • 2217

    It's really quite simple but you do have to clarify the definition of same date and same illness. eg is the same day of the same year or the same day but possibly differing years. The latter gives 365 to 1 ignoring the illness bit and leap years. 

    To bring in illness, you have to bring in mortality tables split by illness (effectively defining the sameness of the illnesses). Then you merely have to multiply up the relevant probabilities and sum up by date. 

    A spreadsheet should deal with the computational complexity. The odds would therefore differ by person. 

     

      August 26, 2018 7:18 AM MDT
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  • 113301
    Here are the specifics m'dear.

     Senator John McCain died of brain cancer August 25, 2018.  Senator Ted Kennedy died of the exact same disease exactly 9 years ago on August 25. So the odds are 365 to 1

    Aretha Franklin died on the exact same date as Elvis Presley, 41 years later. Different causes.

    I'm always looking for meaning/connections. Is there any or is it just happenstance? Aretha died of pancreatic cancer and I'm not exactly sure what killed Elvis but I think it had something to do with drugs and booze. Thank you for your reply Malizz and Happy Sunday! ;) This post was edited by RosieG at August 26, 2018 7:45 AM MDT
      August 26, 2018 7:41 AM MDT
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  • 2217

    The odds will vary according to the known facts at the time. Before Senator McCain passed away the chances of them dying on the same day of the year would approximate closely to 365 to 1. After then until TEd's death his chances of dying on 25 August would approximate less closely to 365 to 1 expecially after diagnosis. After both deaths all bets are off. 

    To take into account cause of death you would factor in the mortality table for death by brain cancer (or each cause before McCain's death) applied to the relevant calendar dates. Clearly the applicable mortality would rise sharply to become calendar sensitive after diagnosis. 

    This post was edited by Malizz at August 26, 2018 1:19 PM MDT
      August 26, 2018 8:29 AM MDT
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