Active Now

Slartibartfast
Discussion » Statements » Rosie's Corner » "Covid 19 cases are rising in all 50 states". Congrats to all those who participated by refusing to participate in the solution. PROUD?

"Covid 19 cases are rising in all 50 states". Congrats to all those who participated by refusing to participate in the solution. PROUD?

Posted - July 17, 2021

Responses


  • 34253
    Mild moderate cases.  

    Deaths are not rising. 

    If you have the shot and I do not....I am no threat to you.

    We all have right to decide what risk we are willing to take in our lifes. 

    Delta is 19x less deadly than original covid. 
      July 17, 2021 7:12 AM MDT
    1

  • 2706
    Good answer. :)
      July 17, 2021 11:03 AM MDT
    1

  • 258
    Contributor "my2cents" wrote:
    "Delta [the Delta variant of the Coronavirus] is 19x less deadly than [the] original covid."

    That appears to be fake news:
    - - - - Start of extract: - - - -

    "An Instagram post 
    [Link invalid. (Alternative) Twitter link here: 
    https://twitter.com/iansmithfitness/status/1410253912037335047] claimed [July 1, 2021] it’s far less lethal.

    "Fear in perpetuity," the post said. "Delta variant is approximately 19 times less deadly than the already massively inflated death numbers we got for China virus part 1. Mainstream media about to tell you otherwise 24/7."

    The post was flagged as part of Facebook’s efforts to combat false news and misinformation on its News Feed. (Read more about our partnership with Facebook.)

    Experts say there’s not enough data yet to determine whether the delta variant is less dangerous than earlier variants."

    [...]

    [Heading:] "Why the post is misleading"

    "The Instagram post includes a portion of Table 2 from a June 25 technical report on coronavirus variants by Public Health England, a government agency. The table indicates the case fatality rate is 0.1% for delta, compared with 1.9% for the original alpha variant — or 1/19th the rate. That’s how the post arrives at the conclusion that delta is "19 times less deadly."

    Public Health England spokesperson James McCreadie told PolitiFact the post "is factually incorrect and manipulates our data." "


    Extract source:
    https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jul/07/instagram-posts/data-showing-lower-death-rate-coronavirus-delta-va/

    - - - - End of extract - - - -


    Claim the Delta variant of the Coronavirus less deadly, also debunked here: 
    https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/there-is-no-evidence-that-the-delta-variant-of-sars-cov-2-has-a-lower-fatality-rate-than-the-wild-type-virus-craig-kelly-dan-bongino/


    This post was edited by Robert at July 17, 2021 3:25 PM MDT
      July 17, 2021 3:03 PM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    Because Facebook is the orbitor of truth.....LOL. 

    FB also owns Instagram.:  Here is a "fact check" by Politico of an Instagram post. 


    Notice they confirm the figure being for Delta is  19x less deadly than the original covid.  But then double talk and claim it is too soon to know...LOL.  Then have NERVE to claim it is "mostly false." 

    And this is why we do not trust FB or the rest of the "Fact checkers."  They are full of crap.

    And certainly why they should never be in charge of censoring "misinformation." This post was edited by my2cents at July 17, 2021 6:30 PM MDT
      July 17, 2021 6:02 PM MDT
    0

  • 258
    The information (that had been misused by the fake news promoted by contributor "my2cents") was from Public Health England, whose response "my2cents" also ignores:

    Repeat quote from my previous post:

    "Public Health England spokesperson James McCreadie told PolitiFact
    the post "is factually incorrect and manipulates our data." ":
    https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jul/07/instagram-posts/data-showing-lower-death-rate-coronavirus-delta-va/



    This post was edited by Robert at July 18, 2021 12:00 PM MDT
      July 18, 2021 11:57 AM MDT
    0

  • 34253

    The number say exactly what they say.  There is no denying it. If you want to "follow the science,"  or the math.
    1.9 =  19 x .1
    all day...everyday. 

    Just because they to not like the fact that their information demonstrates. Does not make the statement it false nor "mostly false," This post was edited by my2cents at July 18, 2021 1:00 PM MDT
      July 18, 2021 12:58 PM MDT
    0

  • 258
    The source I provided also states that a lower fatality rate can be expected due to the number of people who have now been vaccinated:
    - - - - Start of extract: - - - -

    "Experts pointed out that lower case fatality rates would be expected, simply because so many people have been vaccinated in recent months, whereas the original coronavirus had time to spread and cause severe disease long before vaccines became widely available.

    The vaccines authorized in the U.S. and the U.K. have been shown to substantially reduce the likelihood of getting infected with COVID-19, and to reduce the severity of the disease in those who do get infected.


    Boston University professor Brooke Nichols, a health economist and infectious-disease mathematical modeler, noted that Table 4 of the same report
    [Report from Public Health England of June 25 2021:  

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001354/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_17.pdf

    ] shows that most people aged 50 and over who have been confirmed to be infected with the delta variant have had one or two doses of the vaccine. 

    "The reported case fatality rate from Table 2 in the report is really just illustrative of the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing severe disease," she said.

    Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said: "All variants are going to have a lower case fatality rate, because a significant portion of the population, especially those at high risk for death, are fully or partially vaccinated."

    The delta virus was "tamer because of the high proportion of high-risk people that were protected by a combination of vaccination and prior immunity," he added. "Also, treatments have improved."

    Extract source:
    https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/jul/07/instagram-posts/data-showing-lower-death-rate-coronavirus-delta-va/

    - - - - End of extract - - - -


    This post was edited by Robert at July 18, 2021 3:29 PM MDT
      July 18, 2021 3:20 PM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    Sorry cannot use the vaccine as an excuse for Delta be less deadly in the US. As Fauci says the vast majority of the deaths (I think 95+%) are from unvaccinated.   So that excuse does not cut water. Surely, the people doing the study accounted for this and compared unvaccinated to unvaccinated. 
    Have to compare apples to apples. 

    But yes that is how every virus works it mutates to me more communicable (it spreads more) and but less deadly ( it does not kill its host nor itself in the process(  to mutate more so that perhaps that same host can be reinfected later.  

    ie. The Cold. The flu etc all do this. It is how viruses work in nature. 

    Interesting the natural (prior) immunity counts for explaining less deaths from a varient but does not count towards the herd immunity.  Lol
      They talk out of both sides of their face and think no one notices. 
      July 18, 2021 4:00 PM MDT
    0

  • 258
    Contributor "my2cents" wrote:
    "[...] cannot use the vaccine as an excuse for Delta be less deadly in the US. As Fauci says the vast majority of the deaths (I think 95+%) are from unvaccinated.   So that excuse does not cut water. [...]"

    No matter with what variant a person becomes infected, deaths are lower among the vaccinated.
    Therefore it is not valid to compare data on deaths taken prior to vaccinations becoming available, with current data, to argue that the Delta variant is less lethal.
    The current data includes people who caught the Delta variant after being vaccinated and so they were protected.

    This post was edited by Robert at July 19, 2021 2:08 PM MDT
      July 19, 2021 2:07 PM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    Then as I said they should compare apples to apples. Unvax to unvax etc. 

    So here you go:  in the UK unvaccinated IFR (Imfection Fatality Rate) for Delta is .08%
    The IFR during 2020 (prior to vaccines) for Covid in the UK for general population was .64%

    Now, I know you are going to say that is because so many of the older people 75+ died originally.  And that is certainly a fair point. 

    So we will not use the general population IFR. But the IFR for 50-64 prior to vaccines.  Which was .14%

    Now .14% (original covid unvaccinated under 64) 
    in UK) is a higher death rate than .08% death rate for unvaccinated under 64 yrs old in UK from Delta.  

    .14 > .08

    Delta is NOT as deadly. 
      July 20, 2021 4:30 AM MDT
    0

  • 258

    The reply to my previous message from contributor "my2cents" is neither connected with, nor is evidence in support, of the fake news with which she started and which I have already answered.

    To remind the reader that fake news is quoting contributor "my2cents":
    "Delta is 19x less deadly than original covid".

    She attempts re-start the discussion with new bogus points for which she provides no objective scientific evidence.

      July 20, 2021 10:42 AM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    No one in the news is quoting me. 

    Again just because they do not like what their number demonstrate does not void or invalidate the numbers. 

    I gave you the fact check from Politico that confirmed the numbers for Delta.  
    You said claim it is because of vaccinated being counted.   I showed you the data sbowing numbers for only unvaxxed..

    But somehow I am "being quoted by fake news"......


    Nppe just comparing apples to apples.   This the proper way to make a comparison. 

    And .08 is less than .14
      July 20, 2021 11:02 AM MDT
    0

  • 258
    When I attempt to post a reply, most of my reply gets posted in in strikethrough; although no strikethrough was applied to any of the text. 

    This post was edited by Robert at July 20, 2021 11:23 AM MDT
      July 20, 2021 11:14 AM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    Unvaccinated IFR is .08
    IFR before vaccine available and before Delta was .14

    That is not fake news. Those are the numbers. 
      July 20, 2021 12:07 PM MDT
    0

  • 258
    Contributor "my2cents" wrote:
    "Unvaccinated IFR [Infection Fatality Rate] is .08
    IFR before vaccine available and before Delta was .14"

    i) Not the assertion originally made by her.
    ii) No scientific sources cited.
    iii) Somewhat irrelevant to the general crisis.

    The following is relevant to the issue:

    - - - - Start of extract: - - - -

    [Heading:] "For unvaccinated, coronavirus is soaring again"

    "With the arrival of delta, we will have two very different epidemics — one a mild cold in vaccinated individuals, and then we continue to have deadly infections in unvaccinated individuals,” said William Powderly, an infectious-disease specialist and director of the Institute for Public Health at Washington University in St. Louis.

    “The people who need to come to hospital, who end up in the intensive care unit, and the people who die are almost exclusively unvaccinated individuals,” he said, noting that his hospital has three times the covid-19 patients it had in late June."

    Extract source:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/unvaccinated-case-rate-delta-surge/

    - - - - End of extract - - - - 


    Since it is clear contributor "my2cents" appears to intend to not get any vaccine against the Coronavirus, I would invite her to take a look at my answer at the following location:
    https://answermug.com/forums/topic/131445/83-to-90-of-covidites-have-the-delta-variant-virus-were-neve/view/post_id/912726/page/1#siteforum_post_912726

    This post was edited by Robert at July 21, 2021 2:28 PM MDT
      July 20, 2021 1:06 PM MDT
    0

  • 34253

    Again just because they do not like the data does not make it fake.

    Unvaccinated cases of Delta 53,822 Deaths of unvaccinated 44 = .08%   all ages

     

      July 22, 2021 6:38 AM MDT
    0

  • 258
    The Table uploaded by contributor "my2cents" can be viewed by using the link provided by her; it is at pages 13 to 14 of the PDF; the document is dated June 25,2021.

    Its last set of figures are of concern. Further results will be needed over time.


    The following research is dated (later) July 21, 2021:
    - - - - Start of extract: - - - -

    RESULTS

    Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines.

    With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant.

    With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.

    CONCLUSIONS

    Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose. This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations. (Funded by Public Health England.)

    Extract source:

    Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

    - - - - End of extract - - - -






    This post was edited by Robert at July 23, 2021 4:12 AM MDT
      July 23, 2021 4:12 AM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    As I said.  .08 < .14

    Delta is not more deadly. 
      July 23, 2021 5:46 AM MDT
    0

  • 258
    The data supplied by contributor "my2cents" does not discuss whether the delta variant of the Coronavirus is either more, or less, deadly, than the original virus - being the point discussed by her. This post was edited by Robert at July 23, 2021 8:40 AM MDT
      July 23, 2021 8:37 AM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    Nope. But it does show via the study data that Delta is .08% IFR for unvaccinated  which is less than the original Covid...which is .14%  all data is compared to nonvaccinated cases....

    I do not need them to tell me .08 < .14, I have been to grade school. This post was edited by my2cents at July 23, 2021 10:30 AM MDT
      July 23, 2021 9:41 AM MDT
    0

  • 258
    If those figures include figures of deaths for the original coronavirus at a time when there were no vaccinations, this is not a valid comparison with the death rate for the Delta variant now.
      July 23, 2021 10:33 AM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    So you want to compare death rates from the Delta same time frame vax vs unvax

    Total cases of Delta 92,029  117 deaths = .12%

    Vaxxed cases  38,207   deaths  73 = .19%
    1 Dose only 19,957 cases 20 deaths = .10%
    2 Doses 7,235 cases 50 deaths = .69%

    Unvaxxed cases 53,822 deaths 44 = .08%

    Same study info is in the chart above.   Again .08 is less than .10, .19 and .69 

    Again Apples to apples comparision.....Delta is NOT more deadly.  This post was edited by my2cents at July 23, 2021 12:59 PM MDT
      July 23, 2021 12:44 PM MDT
    0

  • 258
    I refer contributor "my2cents" to my post  July 23, 2021 4:12 AM MDT.

    The table she uploaded, does not cover deaths from the original virus; The table she linked and its data is for Delta cases in England, 1 February 2021 to 21 June 2021 (see table heading). Therefore her words "NOT more deadly" are unsupported by her quoted data.





    This post was edited by Robert at July 23, 2021 1:31 PM MDT
      July 23, 2021 12:54 PM MDT
    0

  • 34253
    Again I am a she.   

    How do you think the varients should be compared to the original?  

    You do not seem to be happy with comparing unvax to unvax..... 
    It would not be proper to compare just cases to cases at that does not compare death rates....only infection rates.  

    What numbers do you want from when? 


      July 23, 2021 1:48 PM MDT
    0