App Maker Sez Trump Will Win. Do You Agree With His Reasoning?

Not only do I agree with it, I've been saying as much for almost a year.  When people are free to express their sentiments without fear of vilification, they'll come down overwhelmingly in favor of Trump's message, Trump's clarity, and Trump's sincerity.  They may not agree with him, they may not even like him, but Trump represents everything which the establishment hates about America and Americans--and the people know it.  When they pull the curtain closed behind them in the voting booth, there will be nothing and no one to keep the people from venting their outrage with the metaphorical pull of the proverbial lever.

Suffice to say I'll be more surprised by a Hillary victory than by a Trump victory, but I will fear for the future of my country either way.

Liberals since the late 60s have been very loud about what they believe while conservatives, take a more conservative approach. Another thing is that the conservatives are greatly outnumbered online a lot of the time, because they are creating things while liberals are trying to get others to change things.

Exactly.  By tradition, conservatives and, hell, pretty much anyone who goes against the popular grain, aren't as vocal about their opinions.  They might tell you what you want to hear just to keep from being pigeonholed, but when the rubber meets the road they WILL take the stand they think is the most appropriate.

In 2016 the only realistic choice we have is between a cold-hearted criminal and a nutter.  All things considered, I'll take the nutter.

It is insane that with the size of the USA population, with 3 hundred Mil plus people you have dumber and dumber. I would not trust Hillary at all. Her record as Sec of State should alarm so many. Yet, she is still here? How the hell do you all choose?

You're spot on!

Americans are at that awkward stage of a nation's decline when they discover that pulling that funny looking lever accomplishes exactly nothing.  After that comes revolution.

So, you're going to go with this new never-been-tested-against-reality app instead of pollsters who have spent decades comparing their poll results to ultimate outcomes and fine-tuning their methodologies, simply because the app produces the result you wish to see?

There's a phrase to describe that sort of "reasoning." One is "motivated cognition." However, I prefer the Internet meme description.

     "So, you're..."

Beware anyone who begins a 'rebuttal' with any variation on the words 'so you.'  Someone, typically a statist of leftward bent, is trying to put words in your mouth or ideas in your head. Words you never formulated and ideas you never conceived.

Thanks for falling into another troll trap, SKOS.  Pleasure doing business with you...again. :-)

Any facts backing this one up? Seems you and others have plenty time lowering the debate level posting your questions here. Look up the demographics of the conservative and liberal voters. You'd be surprised where the really busy people are. Smh.

@Nimitz  --

Re: "Suffice to say I'll be more surprised by a Hillary victory than by a Trump victory"

The Authoritarian ability to forget what they said in their own ravings and resort to ad hominem attacks instead of refuting reality-based arguments never fails to amaze. As you can see above, I had no need to put words in your mouth or keyboard. You uttered them yourself.

I'm glad you're at least amused by your own intellectual shortcomings. Please refer to the linked Internet meme as a refresher.

Really?  Asking a question "[lowers] the debate level"?  So much for the Socratic method.

But you're spot on about one thing. On the main, conservatives are poorer than liberals and have to work much harder for a living--i.e., they're much busier. (This assumes, of course, that busy-ness is inversely proportional to wealth.)

https://www.minnpost.com/health/2007/11/party-rich-democrats-or-rep...

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-hidden-agenda-the-politica...

Following the threads you'll be able to see my remark was made to someone else than you. It won't be the asking, but the way you ask. Hmm. Have a lovely day.

Let me recapture history. Taken from Wikipedia:

German federal election, March 1933

Federal elections were held in Germany on 5 March 1933. The 1933 poll was held after the Nazi seizure of power and the Reichstag fire, just six days before the election. Nazi storm troopers had unleashed a campaign of violence against the Communist Party (KPD), left-wingers,[1]:317 trade unionists, the Social Democratic Party of Germany,[1] and the centre-right Catholic Centre Party.[1]:322

The 1933 election followed the previous year's two elections (July and November) and Hitler's appointment as Chancellor. In the months before the 1933 election, brownshirts and SS displayed "terror, repression and propaganda [...] across the land",[1]:339 and Nazi organizations "monitored" the vote process. In Prussia 50,000 members of the SS, SA and Stahlhelm were ordered to monitor the votes by acting Interior Minister Hermann Göring, as auxiliary police.[2]

The Nazis registered a large increase in votes in 1933. Despite waging a campaign of terror against their opponents, the Nazis only tallied 43.9 percent of the vote, well short of a majority. They needed the votes of their coalition partner, the German National People's Party (DNVP), for a bare working majority in the Reichstag.

This would be the last contested election held in Germany before World War II. Two weeks after the election, Hitler was able to pass an Enabling Act on 23 March with the support of all non-socialist parties, which effectively gave Hitler dictatorial powers. Within months, the Nazis banned all other parties, dissolved the Reichstag and replaced it with a rubberstamp legislature comprising only Nazis and pro-Nazi "guests."

@Troll --

     "The Authoritarian ability..."

Oh, goody.  You've gone to lying again.  How cute.  I've said nothing which is even remotely authoritarian.  Hint, SKOS: I am not the one who seeks to use the power of government to control other human beings. :-)

...Oh, and the degree to which I would be surprised by a Hillary or Trump victory has nothing to do with whatever faith you may imagine that I've put in some silly app.  Wrong again, rain man. Gawd, you're easy! :-)

You have a lovely day, too, Sapphic.

(My point was valid no matter who you were addressing, but thanks for the largely unnecessary correction. :-D)

If your intent was to demonstrate that votes don't always agree with polling, that was kinda sorta my point. People will tell a pollster (and their friends/coworkers) whatever gets them in the least amount of trouble regardless of whatever their actual, electoral intentions might be. (Yes, I know where you were going, but still...)

I will at least recognize your overarching analysis though, if only to point out the deficits in comparing modern American conservatives to Nazis or Trump to Hitler.  He, trump, is just not that charismatic, and conservatives have a staid history of being counter-phobic to this characterization. Hell, they'll even vote for blacks, gays and women now...just as long as they're conservative. :-)

(Take it as you want. If you feel questions debasing people of another opinion are not lowering the debate level, it will say a lot more about you than my "largely unnecessary correction.")

Over and out on this thread, at least from my side.

Peace!

Thanks for being a good sport, Sapphic.  'Many' could take lessons from your example of civility.

My reference was made to your last sentence ("All things considered, I'll take the nutter.") which I happen to believe you are aware about. Nice play, not. Look up the public speeches held by the GOP nominee, and what he has suggested over time. They are not all that sarcastic. It is however a democratic election and the GOP has chosen him being their best candidate. If you believe it's safer to stand behind a "nutter" you won't know how he reacts, then taht will be your democratic right. I've seen too many "nuttters" getting into power around the world. Now that will be my opinion on this.

Over and out on this thread too, at least from my side.

Peace!